Haaland's Next Chapter: The 2025-26 Season Projections

Let's cut right to it: Erling Haaland is going to hit 32 goals in the Premier League during the 2025-26 season. After a slightly down year in 2024-25, where he "only" bagged 27 league goals in 35 appearances – a drop from his record-breaking 36 in 2022-23 – the big Norwegian is due for a bounce-back. His xG in 24-25 dipped to 25.5, indicating some missed opportunities, and a few more post-hits than usual.

Here's the thing: Guardiola’s City side will continue to evolve, and with Phil Foden fully entrenched as a Ballon d'Or contender by then, the service for Haaland will be even more refined. Expect Haaland's goals per game in the league to climb from 0.77 in 24-25 to 0.89 in 25-26. That’s a significant jump, pushing him closer to that elusive 1.0 GPG mark he flashed glimpses of in his debut season.

His minutes per goal will shrink too, from 105 minutes in the 2024-25 Premier League campaign to a sharper 92 minutes in 2025-26. This isn't just about Haaland improving; it’s about the entire City machine clicking into an even higher gear. Kevin De Bruyne, likely in his final elite season with City, will be trying to go out with a bang, feeding that final killer pass. Imagine a healthy De Bruyne for 30+ league games; the assists will flow.

Now, about the Champions League. Haaland had a respectable 8 goals in 10 Champions League games in 2024-25, including a important hat-trick against RB Leipzig in the group stage. For 2025-26, I'm projecting 11 Champions League goals. City will be desperate to reclaim the trophy they won in 2023, and Haaland will be the spearhead. He'll get at least two multi-goal games in the group stage, pushing his tally early.

His expected goals (xG) in all competitions will rise from 36.8 in 24-25 to a staggering 43.5 in 25-26. This reflects a more central role and perhaps a slight tweak in City's attacking patterns to maximize his presence in the box. Julian Alvarez will still be a key rotational piece, scoring 12-15 goals across all competitions, but Haaland remains the undisputed number one.

Real talk: Some pundits will still try to find fault, claiming he's "just a tap-in merchant" or that his all-around play isn't developing fast enough. But tell that to the score sheet. His 2025-26 season will see him score more headers – let’s say 6 league headers compared to 3 in 24-25 – as he refines that part of his game. He’ll also bag at least one goal from outside the box, a rare but impactful occurrence for the striker.

The 2024-25 season saw him miss two league games due to a minor hamstring strain in October and one cup game. Assuming a cleaner bill of health for 2025-26, playing 36 out of 38 league matches, that extra game alone accounts for a goal or two. It’s not just about quality, it’s about availability at this level.

My hot take? Haaland will finally win the PFA Player of the Year award again in 2025-26, reclaiming it from whoever snags it in 24-25 (likely Foden or an Arsenal player). He’ll be too dominant to ignore, his goal numbers speaking for themselves. This will be the year he silences the lingering whispers about his big-game performances in the latter stages of the Champions League, scoring in both legs of a semi-final tie.

Bold prediction: Haaland finishes the 2025-26 season with 47 goals across all competitions.