Simpson's First-Round Dream: A Reality Check for Alabama's QB
Ty Simpson is feeling himself. After Alabama's recent Pro Day, where he threw in front of a slew of NFL scouts, the young quarterback declared he's "absolutely" a first-round pick. You gotta admire the confidence. He's a kid who's been in the shadows, mostly, since arriving in Tuscaloosa as a highly-touted recruit. But here's the thing: confidence alone doesn't get your name called on Thursday night.
Simpson barely saw the field last season, throwing just 28 passes. Jalen Milroe owned the starting job, leading the Crimson Tide to a 12-2 record and an SEC Championship. Simpson's most extensive action came in the second half against USF back on September 16, a game Alabama won 17-3. He completed 6 of 9 passes for 73 yards that day, and while he didn't turn it over, he didn't exactly light up the scoreboard either. His career stats are thin: 16 completions on 28 attempts for 179 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. Those aren't exactly first-round numbers, no matter how good your Pro Day throwing session looks in shorts and a t-shirt.
The Projection Problem
Look, every year some guy crushes the Pro Day. The ball zips, the footwork is clean, and the deep throws look effortless. But NFL scouts aren't just looking at how you throw against air. They're evaluating years of tape, the ability to read defenses under pressure, and how you perform when the lights are brightest. Simpson hasn't had many chances to show that. When Milroe struggled early in the year, particularly against Texas on September 9 where he threw two picks in a 34-24 loss, Nick Saban briefly experimented with Tyler Buchner and Simpson. Neither seized the moment. Buchner transferred, and Simpson stayed, but the starting job remained Milroe's.
It's tough to project a player as a first-rounder with such limited game experience, especially at quarterback. Historically, quarterbacks taken in the first round have a substantial body of work in college. Think C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, or Joe Burrow – guys with multiple seasons as starters, putting up huge numbers, and consistently winning big games. Simpson doesn't have that resume. He's got a strong arm and good athleticism, sure, but so do a lot of guys who end up as day three picks or undrafted free agents.
Waiting for His Shot
Maybe Simpson's moment comes this fall. Milroe is back, but if Simpson truly believes he's a first-round talent, he needs to prove it on the field in 2024. He needs to push Milroe, compete for the starting job, and if he gets it, he needs to dominate. We're talking 3,000 yards, 25+ touchdowns, and leading Alabama to another playoff berth. Anything less, and that "absolutely a first-round pick" declaration is going to sound more like wishful thinking than a genuine projection.
Here's my hot take: Ty Simpson is a talented kid with a big arm, but he's nowhere near a first-round pick right now. He's probably not even a top-50 pick in next year's draft unless he completely transforms his college career this season. He's got potential, absolutely, but potential doesn't get you drafted in the first round without the game film to back it up.
**Bold prediction:** Ty Simpson will not be a first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. He'll need at least two full seasons as a starter at Alabama, putting up elite numbers, to even sniff that conversation.